Competing Ballot Measures
How political games shape your ballot
Ballot measures are laws we vote on directly, and in San Francisco, we vote on a lot of them.1 Competing ballot measures are proposed laws addressing the same or similar topic that appear on the ballot at the same time and are mutually exclusive.
Even if they both pass2, usually only the one with the most votes will become effective because of a “poison pill”—a legal clause that says “if I win everyone else loses”. Like this one:
Why do ballot measures try to poison each other? Politics, baby.
In some cases, there are legitimately two different ideas about a similar topic and the voters have to sort it out. This is the case with November 2024 Prop M and Prop L.3 These measures have different motivations and did not set out to challenge each other, but they overlap in that they both change business taxes.4
In other cases, competing ballot measures are less about winning and more about making another measure lose. Suppose your political opponent was running a ballot measure you didn’t like. How would you stop it? You could spend a lot of money to run negative ads that some voters will see, or you could put an opposing measure on the ballot that every voter will see.
This is common in SF because it’s easy to get things on the ballot. In addition to citizens’ initiatives, the Mayor and Board of Supervisors routinely put multiple measures on the ballot. In fact, it’s currently easier for Supervisors to send an ordinance to the ballot (4 votes) than to pass it themselves (6 votes).
In this way, ballot measures often end up as proxy battles between political coalitions. We saw it in 2022 with Prop D and E, which featured the political coalition aligned with the Mayor vs that of the Board of Supervisors. Look at how similar the language is:
Competing ballot measures of this sort change the question from “Do I support this policy?” to “Do I support this policy, and if so, which team’s version?”. From previous experience and conversations with wary voters, this often causes confusion and skepticism. Perhaps unsurprisingly, both measures lost:5
In the November 2024 election we have a similar situation. Prop E was put on the ballot to compete against Prop D. For helpful context and a detailed analysis of Prop D, see here:
Prop E Analysis
Prop E is both simpler and harder to analyze because it doesn’t necessarily do anything. Similar to Prop D, it would create a review process to recommend changes to the city’s commission system. But unlike Prop D, it does not make or require any particular type or amount of change. To get a sense of the difference in scale, the legal text for Prop E is 9 pages, while Prop D is 75 pages.
While the political context (discussed below) is the main story with Prop E, the legal mechanisms are still worth review. Here’s the official summary from the voter information pamphlet:
Commission Streamlining Task Force (CSTF)
Similar to Prop D, Prop E would also create a CSTF but with different membership: the City Administrator, Controller, City Attorney, a public sector organized labor representative appointed by the President of the Board, and a person with expertise in open and accountable government appointed by the Mayor.6
The CSTF would then review the city’s commissions and submit a report to the Mayor and Board of Supervisors in early 2026 recommending which commissions, if any, should be added, modified, or deleted.7
Implementation
The legal pathway for implementing the CSTF recommendations depends on the type of commission. If the CSTF recommends changes to Charter commissions or other voter-approved commissions (explained here), that would require a future ballot measure.8
All other commissions can be changed by ordinance via the normal legislative process, and quite interestingly, the CSTF is given legislative power—it can pass an ordinance which automatically takes effect unless rejected by a two-thirds Board of Supervisors vote within 90 days.9 This is quite unusual and was a subject of debate during public hearings on the matter.
Political Context
Ultimately, Prop E is only on the ballot because of Prop D. Introduced by current Board President Aaron Peskin—the leading “progressive” candidate for Mayor—Prop E was specifically created to oppose the “moderate” Democrat-backed Prop D. People involved with the measure have confirmed this to me.
Campaign finance records tell the same story. While Peskin’s mayoral campaign has raised more than $2.5M, the committee supporting Prop E has raised less than $70k. This is not an effort with serious financial or political support behind it, but it’s still there on the ballot!
Conclusion
Identifying competing ballot measures lets you see the political games that shape your ballot. It helps you make sense of why certain issues land on your ballot in the first place and what they're really about.
If you can sort out questions of law from questions of politics, you can avoid voting on things you don’t understand. Your government and your city will be better for it.
There are 15 ballot measures in the November 2024 election. The voter information pamphlet is 300 pages.
The threshold to pass depends on the type of measure. Most require 50% +1, but school district bonds are 55%, while General Obligation Bonds and Special Taxes are two-thirds.
Prop M is a comprehensive business tax reform and Prop L is a rideshare tax to fund MUNI.
Interestingly, only Prop M contains a poison pill. This means that if both pass and Prop L gets more votes, they will both become effective. If they both pass and Prop M gets more votes, Prop L is RIP.
Note that the amount of under votes was 4x the margin of defeat for 2022 Prop D. Under votes are when a voter skips a question on the ballot.
Prop E Section 2, amending Charter Sec. 4.100, subsection (1)(a)
Prop E Section 2, amending Charter Sec. 4.100, subsection (1)(d)
Prop E Section 2, amending Charter Sec. 4.100, subsection (1)(e)
Prop E Section 2, amending Charter Sec. 2.105